A Historic El Niño Is Coming. Here Is What It Means for Your Florida Garden

Jermaine is the one who told me about this. My husband said it like I was supposed to already know. A historic El Niño.

And I said umm. What is El Niño.

I think I have heard of it before. Somewhere. But mommy brain does not leave space for that kind of information, so whatever I knew about it is long gone.

So I asked him a whole lot of questions, and then I went and looked it up myself, because what I wanted to know was not really the science. It was what do I need to do about it.

So here is the short version. Our winter is supposed to be the dry season. It rains all summer and then it stops, and that is when we grow everything good. Tomatoes, collards, lettuce, cabbage, beans, all of it happens in our dry months.

El Niño makes that winter wet instead.

What Is Actually Happening

The Pacific warms up, the subtropical jet stream gets stronger, and the storm track slides south over Florida. So instead of the calm sunny dry season we plan our whole fall garden around, we get more fronts, more clouds, more rain, and a bumpier second half of winter.

NOAA's numbers as of the August update: the Niño 3.4 region is running 1.4 degrees Celsius above normal, over 90 percent odds of a very strong event, and a 69 percent chance it goes past 2.5 degrees between October and December. That last one would make it the strongest since they started keeping records this way in 1950.

The Part Nobody Tells Gardeners

Everybody hears El Niño and thinks cold. Down here the main effect is water and clouds, not temperature.

In past strong events Florida temperatures came in around normal or even a little above. The problem is the water and the lack of sun. A wet dry season causes different problems than a cold one, and most people do not plan for it.

What That Does to a Florida Fall Garden

1. Fungus everywhere

This is the big one. Wet leaves plus cool nights plus no sun to dry things out is exactly what fungal and bacterial disease wants. Downy mildew on your greens. Bacterial and target spot on tomatoes. Root rot in anything sitting in wet soil.

In a normal winter our dry air does half the disease control for us. This year the air stays damp.

2. Roots sitting in soggy soil

Papaya, avocado and passion fruit can be gone after two or three days in soggy soil. In summer we watch for that. Watch for it this winter too, because that is how you lose a tree you have had for years.

3. Less light means slower everything

More clouds means less sun. Seedlings stretch and get leggy. Fruit sets slower and ripens slower. Your December harvest may just show up in January.

4. Fronts that actually come through

More frontal passages means more of those nights where the temperature drops for real. Keep your frost cloth where you can reach it in the dark.

5. Rough weather in the back half

The severe weather risk goes up in the second half of winter, which is not something we normally plan around in January and February. Wind can bring down a tall trellis, so secure them.

6. More weeds and slugs

Both do well in damp weather, so expect more of them than usual.

What to Change Before You Plant

Get everything up out of the water

Raised beds, mounds, containers. If you have a spot in the yard that puddles after a storm, do not put your cool season crops there this year. That spot is going to stay wet for months instead of drying out in a day.

Space things further apart than feels right

Crowded beds hold moisture on the leaves and that is where disease starts. Air moving between the plants helps them dry off after rain. Plant fewer per bed than you normally would.

Water the soil, not the plant, and only in the morning

Same rule I use in summer, but this year it applies all winter too. Never in the evening. Wet leaves overnight in cool weather is what starts the disease.

Mulch, but keep it off the stems

Mulch still helps. Just pull it back a few inches from the base of everything, especially your fruit trees. Wet mulch packed against a trunk rots it.

Pick varieties that can take it

This is the year to lean on disease resistant varieties, and on the crops that shrug things off. Collards, mustard, kale and callaloo are tougher than lettuce. Everglades and cherry tomatoes are tougher than a big slicer.

Have your frost cloth ready in September

Buy it in September and put it somewhere you can get to it. You do not want to be looking for it at nine at night when the forecast just changed.

Check your drainage now while it is still dry enough to fix

Dig a hole, fill it with water, see how long it takes to disappear. If it sits, you have a problem and you have about six weeks to solve it.

What Not to Panic About

You are not skipping the season. Florida gardeners grow through El Niño winters all the time and some of them turn out fine. The damage comes from standing water around the roots and from moisture sitting on crowded leaves.

Very strong odds are not a certainty, and even NOAA is saying there is no precedent for an event this size, so nobody knows exactly how it lands here.

Your Timeline

• Now through September. Fix drainage. Build up beds. Buy frost cloth. Start seeds for the fall garden like you normally would.
• October. Plant with wider spacing than usual. Get everything up on mounds or in beds. Set up morning watering.
• November through February. Watch leaves for spots. Pull anything diseased fast instead of nursing it. Keep frost cloth reachable. Do not water on autopilot, check the soil first.
• Second half of winter. Watch for stronger storms. Stake and secure anything tall.

Questions I Am Already Getting

Does El Niño mean a freeze this year?

Not necessarily. Past strong events ran near or above normal temperature in Florida. What it means for sure is more fronts, and more fronts means more chances for one cold night to sneak in.

Should I plant less this winter?

Plant the same amount, spread over more space. Crowding is what causes the disease problems in a wet winter.

Will it affect my fruit trees?

Yes, mostly through roots sitting in wet soil and fungal issues. Mulch off the trunk, watch drainage, and do not fertilize a tree sitting in soggy soil.

How long does this last?

El Niño winters typically fade by spring. The forecast has this one strongest between October and December, running through winter.

Where are you getting this?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion from August 2026, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network's reporting on what a super El Niño does to our state. Links at the bottom.

What I Will Be Doing

I will be telling you what actually happens in my yard as it happens.

Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, August 2026. Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, Building super El Niño to shape Florida's winter, August 2026.